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calculated. Based upon The Charlotte’s density of 294 units, a total project value
of $37,881,312 has been estimated, generating $812,554 in local property taxes.
The existing Tara Heights development generates $1,558,000 in yearly local

property tax revenue.

Table Three
Anticipated Property Tax Revenue
Per Unit Value # Units Value Local Tax Revenue
$128,848 294 $37,881,312 @$21.45/$ 1,000 = $812,554

B) Miscellaneous Yearly Revenues

Another major revenue source for the community is from motor vehicle
registration fees, which generates millions of dollars of local revenue yearly.

Table Four outlines the projected revenue stream for the proposed project.

Table Four
Motor Vehicle Permit Fees
$2942 x 441 vehicles? = $129,654

C) Total Project Revenues

The proposed development is expected to generate $942,208 in gross tax
revenue from both property taxes and automotive permit fees; Table Five.

Table Five
Projected Gross Revenue
Est. Prop. Taxes $812,554
Est. Car Reg. $129,654
Total Revenue $942,208

? Clerks office, Average registration cost for higher end apt.
3 1.5 vehicles per unit, based on Tara Heights ! data.

6

B. Municipal Service Costs

Given the nature of the proposed development project, as will be seen by the
analysis below, few significant impacts will be felt by City Departments. Solid
waste generated by the project will be removed by a private hauler. Any water
and sewer expenses will be offset through user fees. All of the proposed new
driveways will be private and all maintenance expense will be paid for by the
project owner. This is not to infer that no costs will occur as a result of this
project. Measurable impacts will be felt by a few City departments, most
noticeable the School Department, Police and Fire Departments. It should be
noted the costs outlined are “estimates” and no actual costs will be seen without
review and approval by appropriate department heads, administrators and City

elected officials.

Police & Fire

The Police and Fire Departments are projected to experience some measurable
impact from the proposed project. For fiscal year 2020, the Police Department
budget was $31,649,202 and the Fire Department budget was $24,540,642. To
assess the degree of impact this project may have on these departments, calls to
the existing 564 unit Tara Heights were analyzed. Emergency call data was
obtained from the police and fire departments and averaged to determine the
numbers of calls annually per unit. These ratios were then totaled to derive a total
average call volume per unit, which was then used to generate projected

emergency calls for each Department; Table Six.

Extrapolating from the comparable call data, increases are projected to the City's
Police and Fire Departments. Annual Police calls are projected to increase by 48
calls per year (less than 1% increase), annual fire calls are projected to increase

by 21 calls per year (less than 1%).

Table Six

Average Calls: Police-Fire

| Avg. Police Call | Avg.Call | Projected
Project Town Units 28 Months Per Unit Calls
Tara Heights Nashua 564 91 0.161
Proposed Project 294 0.161 48
Avg. Fire Call Avg. Call | Projected
Project Town Units 28 Months Per Unit Calls
Tara Heights Nashua 564 40 0.07
Proposed Project 294 0.07 21

Police Department

The Police Department will see the largest increase in call volume with 48 calls

projected. To put the call volume into perspective, the Department averages
96,300 calls* a year (1,851 per week). The proposed project will add an average

.88 calls per week. To account for Police costs, an average cost per call was

calculated and based upon an estimated 48 calls, results in an estimated Police

cost impact of $15,792 Table Seven. To be conservative, we will carry a cost of

$30,000 for police “costs”.

Table Seven
___. Police Department Costs
FY 2020 Est. Annual
Department Budget Calls Costicall Calls Cost
Police $31,649,202 96,300 $329 48 $15,792

Fire Department

A projected increase of 21 calls is anticipated for the Fire Department. This

increase call volume projection represents less than a 1% increase (.0005%) in

overall calls. To account for some cost to the Fire Department, the Departments
budget was divided by the total calls to arrive at a cost per call of $736; Table
Eight. This average cost approach generates an estimated yearly Fire

Department impact of $15,456.

*Pmergenes call data obturned trent the polige department's Crome Analy stand the Dire Nfarshal’s Office

8

Table Eight
Fire Department Costs

Department FY 2020 Budget Calls Costicall_ Est.Calls Annual Cost

Fire $24,640,642 33,382 $736 21 $15,456

As with the Police Department, to be conservative, we have increased this cost

to $30,000 to account for all potential costs.

Other Departments

As noted previously, all roads within the development will be private along with
refuse removal and water expenses will be addressed through user fees. Given
the type of development proposed and the onsite amenities provided, no other
measurable impacts are anticipated to other City departments. To be
conservative, we will account for a miscellaneous cost® of $22,050.

5 Potential other municipal costs estimated at $75/unit.
9

APPENDIX II — Exceptions and Objections to the Draft Contract
See attached

B) School Costs

As noted above, 55.5% of the tax rate is allocated for schools. This high ratio is
typical in most New Hampshire communities and demonstrates that a high
percentage of local taxes go towards supporting the school system. Based on
the subject sites location, students living at Tara Heights will attend the
Bicentennial Elementary School, the Fairgrounds Middle School and Nashua

High South.

Schoo! Enrollment Trends

The City of Nashua has 17 schools within the community, 12 elementary schools,
three middle schools and two high schools. Over the last seven years, overall
enrollments have fairly level, with elementary schools enrollment declining 10.4%
(Bicentennial -8.8%) the middle schools decreasing 2.2% and the high schools
decreasing less than 1%; see Table Nine & Figure Four.

Table Nine
Enrollment History 2013 ~— 2019/20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % Change 2020
Bicentennial 624 617 646 610 617 620 569 -8.81% 458
Total Elementary 5 635 5,501 5, 405 5,300 5,255 5,199 5,045 -10.47% 4,397
Middle School 2,512 2,414 2,425 2,349 2,381 2,415 2,456 -2.23% 2,318
High School 3,522 3,573 3,547 3,529 3,476 3,547 3,523 0.03% 3,450
Total Enrollment | 11.669 41,448 41,377 41.178 171.112 11.781 11,593 -0.65% 10,623
Figure Four
14000
sooc
000
2000
u
.Ot5 Nis 20:7 O15
wee mre TH Enoieney

Based upon the most recent enrollment projection data®, over the next seven
years enrollments are expected to continue declining in a range from 893 — 1,136
students system wide based on three projection estimates that have been
developed. It should be noted that when Tara Heights phase | was proposed in

2010, total school enrollment was 12,385.

Estimated School Age Children

To determine the potential enrollment impact to the school system, the number of
children that may live in a development must be calculated; school age children
ratio (SAC). As previously noted, the complex will have 294 units with 57
studios, 114 one bedroom and 123 two bedroom units. Typically studios and

one-bedroom units do not generate school age children.

The existing Tara Heights apartment complex contains 564 units, 318 of which
are two bedrooms. One bedroom units do not generate school age children
(SAC). Based on information from the Nashua School District in June/2020,
there were 34 SAC residing’ within the existing apartment complex (47 SAC in
2018). To be conservative, we will use the 2018 enrollment data in this analysis.
Using this data a per unit SAC ratio of .148 (47/318) is derived for the two
bedroom units. The proposed development program will include 266 garden
style units with only 95 of them being two bedroom units. In addition, there will
be 28 two bedroom townhome rental units. Based on the Table Ten outlined
below, it is estimated that 24 SAC may reside within the proposed apartment

development.

* School District enrollment projections.
7 2019/2020 enrollment figure.
* The Fiscal Report completed in 2010 estimated a per unit SAC of .14

Table Ten
Estimated School Age Children

Two Beds | School Age | Avg. SAC
Project Units Children Per Unit Est. SAC
Tara Heights Existing 318 47 0.148
Project Garden 95 0.148 14.06
Townhomes? 28 0.340 9,52
Totals 24(23.58)

Based on the school grade breakdown found at Tara Heights in 2018, it is
estimated that 19 of the children will attend elementary school, 1 middle and 4

high school.
Table 11
SAC Grade Distribution
Grade #SAC
Tara Heights 1-5 37
6-8 3
9-12 7
Total 47
Project Grade #SAC
1-5 19
6-8 1
9-12 4
Total 24

To obtain a clear understanding of the potential impacts to the school district, the
Consultant met with Mr. Daniel Donovan, Nashua School Districts Chief
Operating Officer. The proposed project was reviewed, along with the estimated
school children. Mr. Donovan noted the strong attraction of the Bicentennial
Elementary School, but also noted that the Middle Dunstable School has gained
a strong reputation as well. The biggest impact will be at the elementary level,
but with 19 children spread over five grades he did not believe there would be a
problem. To address capacity concerns at the Bicentennial School, the
Administration has undertaken a number of steps recently. Within the last year
special needs programs were moved out of the school to increase capacity. In
addition, within the next year preschool students will be relocated to 55 Franklin

° School age children data obtain from NH Housing Finance Authority study by AER.
12

Street, a new facility the District is acquiring freeing additional space. Mr,
Donovan does not believe a teacher would be needed based on the estimates for
phase Il. To be conservative, we will estimate the cost of half a teacher

($45,000).

13

SUMMARY
Table 12
Fiscal Summary

Gross Property Tax & Auto
Registration Revenues $942,208

Municipal Costs

Police -$30.000

Fire -$30.000
Misi. -$22,050
School Costs -$45,000
Total Estimated Costs -$127,050
Net Positive Fiscal tmpact +$815,158

Based upon the report's findings, gross yearly revenues generated by the

proposed project will total $942.208. The anticipated yearly fiscal impact to the

City of Nashua is estimated to be $127,050, resulting with a yearly positive fiscal

impact of approximately $815,158. Key findings supporting this conclusion

include:

~ Anestimated $815,158 yearly positive fiscal impact will occur to the

community, with actual positive revenue exceeding this figure.

- Calls to the Police Department are projected in increase by less than 1%.

yr Calls to the Fire Department will realize less than a 1% increase in call

volume.

7 The proposed project will include private drives and trash collection.

~ Overall declining school enrollment is anticipated to continue and 24
school age children are expected to reside within the development

creating limited impact on the District.