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Local Trends

Census figures report that from 2000 to 2010 Nashua’s population declined from
86,605 to 86,494, reporting a small decrease in population over the 10 year
period. 2020 Census data reports Nashua’s population to be 91,322, a 5.5%

increase since 2010.

Approximately 45% of Nashua’s housing stock consists of single family homes,
with the most recent Census data reporting 17,608 single family homes out of a
total housing stock of 39,035 units; Figure One.

Figure One
Housing Breakdown

Multi-family ‘
38% i Singie Family

1-Unit
Attached
9%

Duplex
6%

Budgets

The City’s most recent budget totals $291,026,961. The Education Department,
along with Police and Fire, are some of the largest Departments in the City.
Given the nature of the proposal, these Departments will experience some
measurable impacts from the proposed project and as such, they will be closely
reviewed in this analysis. Figure Two outlined the percentage breakdown of the

budget.

Figure Two
Budget Percentages

General
Government

Other
Public
Safety

Education Tom = Public Works

Public Library

Community
Development

XX _ Debt Service

Contingency
Capital

Improvements Interfund Transfers

A. Fiscal Methodology Approach

Fiscal Impact Analysis can have many connotations, this analysis will follow the
classic definition of fiscal impact as follows “A projection of the direct, current public
costs and revenues associated with residential or nonresidential growth to the local

jurisdiction in which the growth is taking place.”

There are a number of methodologies that are used to estimate fiscal impacts of
proposed development projects. The Per Capita Multiplier Method is the most
often used analysis to determine municipal cost allocation. This methed is the
classic “average” costing method for projecting the impact of population growth
on local spending patterns and is used to establish the costs of existing services
for a new development. The basic premise of this method is that current
revenue/cost ratios per person and per unit is a potential indicator of future
revenue/cost impacts occasioned by growth. New capital expenditures required
for provision of services to a development are not added to current costs;

instead, the present debt service for previous improvements is included to

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represent ongoing capital projects. The advantage of this approach is its
simplicity of implementation and its wide acceptance by both consultants and
local officials. The downside of this approach is that the methodology calculates
the “average” cost as being the expected cost, which is often not the case and
costs can be understated or exaggerated; significantly in some instances. If one
student is added to a school system, limited cost impacts will occur; however,
based on an “average” cost to educate one student the cost would be noted as
$18,000/year which includes such costs as existing debt, building maintenance,
administrative and other factors, all of which will be minimally impacted by the
addition of one student. The “true cost” could be significantly less, especially in

those communities with declining enrollment.

The Marginal Cost Approach is a more realistic methodology that can be used to
estimate and measure developmental impacts based on actual costs that occur

in the community. At this time, a “level of service” exists in Nashua to serve the
community. This existing service level, for the most part, addresses the needs
of the community through existing tax collections. As new development occurs,
pressures are placed on some departments to address increased demands,
while other departments see negligible, if any impacts. In reviewing the
potentially impacted town departments specifically, a truer picture of anticipated
cost impacts can be determined. This Report will use both methodologies in this

analysis.

Given the nature of the proposed development project, as will be shown by the
analysis below, few impacts will be felt by City departments. Solid waste
generated by this project will be removed by a private hauler. Any construction
related or operating utility expenses will be offset through user fees. All on-site
improvements will be private and all maintenance expenses will be paid for by
this project owner. Minor impacts will certainly be felt by a few City Departments
including the School Department along with the Police and Fire Departments.
Other City agencies will see little or no measurable impacts from the proposed 20

unit apartment complex.

B. Local Revenues From Development

A) Property Taxes

Local property taxes provide the bulk of municipal revenues for New Hampshire
communities. The 2021 Tax Rate for Nashua is $23.22; Figure Three outlines
the breakdown of the tax rate. For purposes of this Report, a local tax rate of
$22.02 will be used which excludes the County Tax Rate.

Figure Three
Tax Rate

State School,
$2.12

City, $9.32

School,
$10.58

Table Three outlines the anticipated municipal tax revenue that will be generated
by the proposed project. Reviewing local market conditions and assessments’
for newer apartment units in the City, we have estimated a conservative per unit
assessment of $100,000 which results in a total estimated project value of
$2,000,000, generating $44, 040 in annual property tax payments as detailed in
Table Three.

Table Three
Anticipated Property Tax Revenue
Per Unit Value # Units Value Local Tax Revenue
$100,000 20 $2,000,000 @$22.02/$1,000 = $44,040

The existing assessment of the subject site totals $505,900 and generates
$11,139 in property tax payments.

'62 Lake Street Avg. = $120,750, Riverfront avg. $117,874, Tara Heights avg. $128,848, Marshall St. avg. $101,089.
§

B) Miscellaneous Yearly Revenues

Another major revenue source for the community is from motor vehicle
registration fees, which generated in $10,975,000 in FY2021. Table Four
outlines the projected revenue stream for the proposed project.

Table Four
Motor Vehicle Permit Fees
$2942 x 20 vehicles? = $5,880

C) Total Project Revenues

The proposed development is expected to generate $49,920 in new property
taxes and vehicle registration fees as summarized in Table Five.

Table Five
Projected Gross Revenue
Est. Prop. Taxes $44,040
Est. Car Reg. $5,880

Total Estimated Revenue $49,920

? Clerks office, Average registration cost for higher end apt.
3 1 vehicle per unit.

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B. Municipal Service Costs

Given the nature of the proposed development project, as will be seen by the
analysis below, few impacts will be felt by City Departments. Solid waste
generated by the project will be removed by a private hauler. Any water and
sewer expenses will be offset through user fees. All of the proposed new
driveways will be private and all maintenance expense will be paid for by the
project owner. This is not to infer that no costs will occur as a result of this
project. Minor measurable impacts will be felt by a few City department including

the School Department, Police and Fire Departments.

It should be noted the costs outlined are “estimates” and no actual tax impacts
will be realized without review and approval by appropriate department heads,

administrators and City elected officials.

Police & Fire

The Police and Fire Departments are projected to experience some measurable
impact from the proposed project. For fiscal year 2021, the Police Department
budget was $35,320,858 and the Fire Department $28,245,594. To assess the
degree of impact this project may have on these departments, calls to the existing
564 unit Tara Heights apartment complex were analyzed. Emergency call data
was obtained from police and fire departments and averaged to determine the
numbers of calls annually per unit. These ratios were then totaled to derive a total
average call volume per unit, which was then used to generate projected

emergency calls for each Department as detailed in Tabie Six.

Extrapolating from the comparable call data, increases are projected to the City’s
Police and Fire Departments. Annual Police calls are projected to increase by 3
calls per year and annual fire calls are projected to increase by 1 call per year. To

be conservative, we will increase the potential calls by reporting 9 police cails and

3 fire calls annually.

Table Six

Average Calls: Police-Fire
Avg. Call Per | Projected
Project Town Units Unit Calls
Tara Heights Nashua 564 91 0.161
Project 20 3
Avg. Call Per | Projected
Project Town Units Unit Calls
Tara Heights Nashua 564 40 0.07
Project 20 4

Police Department

The Police Department will see the largest increase in call volume with 9 calls
projected. To put the call volume into perspective, the Department averages
96,300 calis* a year (1,851 per week). The proposed project will add an average
.25 Calls per month. To account for Police costs, an average cost per call was
calculated and based upon an estimated 9 calls, results in an estimated Police
cost impact of $3,303 as outlined in Table Seven.

Table Seven
Police Department Costs :
FY 2021 Est. Annual
_Department Budget Calls Cost/call Calls Cost
Police $35,320,858 96,300 $367. 9 $3,303

Fire Department

A projected increase of 3 calls is estimated for the Fire Department. To account
for some cost to the Fire Department, the Departments budget was divided by
the total calls to arrive at a cost per call of $846 as outlined in Table Eight. This
average cost approach generates an estimated yearly Fire Department impact of
$2,538.

‘ Emergency call data obtained from the police department’s Crime Analyst and the Fire Marshal's Office

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Table Eight
Fire Department Costs

Department FY 2021 Budget Calls _Cost/call Est.Calls Annual Cost_

Fire $28,245,594 33,382 $846 3 $2,538

Other Departments

As noted previously, all areas within the development will be private along with
refuse removal and water expenses will be addressed through user fees. Given
the type of development proposed, no other measurable impacts are anticipated
to other City departments. To be conservative, we will account for a
miscellaneous cost® of $2,000.

> Potential other municipal costs estimated at $100/unit.

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B) School Costs

As noted above, 54.6% of the tax rate is allocated for schools. This high ratio is
typical in most New Hampshire communities and demonstrates that a high
percentage of local taxes go towards supporting the school system. Based on
the subject sites location, students living at the property will attend the
Fairgrounds Elementary School, Fairgrounds Middle School and Nashua High
South.

School Enrollment Trends

The City of Nashua has 17 schools within the community, 12 elementary schools,
three middle schools and two high schools. Over the last eight years, overall
enrollments have decreased along with elementary school enrollment declining
17.6% (Fairgrounds -7.35%) the middle schools decreasing 10.65% and the high
schools decreasing less than 3.4% as detailed in Table Nine & Figure Four.
Given the pandemic over the last two years, the lasting impacts of recent

enrollment declines remains unclear.

Table Nine
Enrollment History 2014 — 2021
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202021 % Change
Elementary 5,501 5,405 5,300 5,255 5,199 5,045 4,397 4,532 -17.61%
Middle School 2,414 2,425 2,349 2,381 2,415 2,456 2,318 2,157 -10.65%
_High School 3,573 3,547 3,529 3,476 3,547 3,523 3,450 3,449 -3.47%
Total Enroliment 11,488 11,377 14,178 11,112 11,161 11,024 10,165 10,138 -11.75%
Fairgrounds Elem. 544 §33 §58 520 505 §28 487 504 -7.35%
Figure Four
Enrollment History
14,000
12,000
10,000 TT
8,000
6,060
4,000 =
2,000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
ew== Elementary === Middle School === High School
=—===Total Enrollment == Fairgrounds Elmen.

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Based upon the most recent enrollment projection data®, over the next four years

enrollments are expected to continue decline.

Estimated School Age Children

To determine the potential enrollment impact to the school system, the number of
children that may live in a development must be calculated; school age children
ratio (SAC). As previously noted, the complex will have 20 two-bedroom units.

The existing Tara Heights apartment complex was used as a local example. The
complex contains 564 units, 318 of which are two bedrooms. One bedroom units
do not generate school age children (SAC). Based on information from the
Nashua School District in June/2020, there were 34 SAC residing within the
existing apartment complex (47 SAC in 2018). Using this data a per unit SAC
ratio of .106 (34/318) is derived for the two bedroom units. Applying this SAC
ratio to the proposed development program which will include 20 garden style
apartment units’ results in an estimated 2 school age children (20 x .106) residing
within the proposed complex. It should be noted that the subject site is located
in a more urban environment than Tara Heights and will be more attractive to

young professionals than families.

Given the declining enrollment seen City wide and at the Fairgrounds Elementary
School, it is unlikely that new school costs will be created by this development.
Based upon past discussions with Mr. Daniel Donovan, Nashua School Districts
Chief Operating Officer, he noted the average cost of a teacher in Nashua with
benefits is approximately $95,000. If we assume a class size of 20 school
children, the cost per teacher would be $4,750 or $9,500 accounting for the
estimated 2 school children that may reside at this new apartment complex.

® §choot District enrollment projections, 2019 — 2029.

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