Search

This is about the time in this document where you’re probably wondering “gee, Sweden had a
lot of deaths. This document keeps using Sweden as an example, but the media has criticized
them”. Well, let’s take a closer look at things.

The chart above shows the trailing average of mortality for Great Britain, Spain, Netherlands
and Sweden. When we look at all of them for the season prior to the current season —in other
words, the right-most part of each chart, we can see that all four of these countries had a very
“soft” prior season — in other words, fewer deaths than expected occurred. What is also
common amongst these countries is that when SARS-CoV-2 arrived in situ, there was a marked
spike in deaths. This is essentially another view of the concept of “dry tinder’ — because of the
prior “softer” season, those countries had “built up” a group of citizens — old, frail citizens —
who were spared from death by influenza, and instead died from COVID-19, causing a large
initial spike in mortality,

Next, we need to dissect the notion that Sweden had more deaths than other Nordic countries.
The following chart illustrates this. Neither Finland nor Norway had a large “trough” with
respect to deaths in the prior season, and as can be seen, neither of them had a massive spike
of deaths in the following season. Hungary is included for interest; they had the opposite occur,
where they saw excess mortality the prior season, and in fact then moved into a period of a
trough even though SARS-CoV-2 was present in the country.

2 Mepeh Trading dverare

METaIty DE

SWEDEN Morality £2 Wash. Tragew Avarace HUNGARY Mortal.t
SWEDEN Momight. £2 veer. Frau Avaerane

SOMITE TSE OE,

aABD wes

x
Pays
)
149
1

e

aud

nats

ww
Bei
Pats

ra?

= ¢

YyG2 Weed Teniiar Averare

oH Se

FINLANT Hage. REALE RORWAY Magee

This clearly shows that there is a confounding factor, one of many, upon death statistics due to
COVID-19. While not directly pertinent to the mask debacle we are discussing, it is nonetheless
interesting. There are a number of other factors that easily explain the difference in deaths

between Sweden and other Nordic countries, but | will leave that as a research exercise for
readers.

On The Topic of Restaurants And Bars

hs. rolling 7-day average
ideath means tt

the from 2h

ig nuriber GF comhirmed

; cart Heneghan

og Just asking: there are 47,600 pubs in the UK {let's say
1000 week through the door} that's nearly 300M people
in 6 weeks - How many outbreaks in that time and

AO :

oO what's the risk?

wa

Maris. 20202 AnriO Aorao May? fun’ Jun

Nashua has been one of the cities that has wanted to implement further restrictions on the
dining experience, and are deeply concerned about opening bars due to the “potential to
spread coronavirus”. In the United Kingdom, bars reopened at the end of June. There have
been no mask requirements in those bars, and only token social distancing requirements. There
are almost 48,000 pubs in the UK, and it is reasonable to assume a minimum of 1,000
patrons/week in those pubs. In a six-week period, that means that there would be nearly 300
million people passing through a pub, not wearing a mask, and not social distancing. They have
now been open for almost two months, and during that period there have been precisely zero
outbreaks in that time, once again proving the fallacy that a mask is required to “prevent the
spread of coronavirus”, and that in fact what you are simply seeing is the “baked in” GOMPERTZ
chart that | have previously explained.

Demonstrating The Lack Of Efficacy Of Mask Ordinances

Starting with our own CDC references, Xiao J, Shiu E, Gao H, et al. Nonpharmaceutical
Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings—Personal Protective and
Environmental Measures. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 2020;26(5):967-975.
doi:10.3201/eid2605.190994, we can see the following:

There were 3 influenza pandemics in the 20th century, and there has been I so far in the
21st century. Local, national, and international health authorities regularly update their
Plans for mitigating the next influenza pandemic in light of the latest available evidence
on the effectiveness of various control measures in reducing transmission. Here, we
review the evidence base on the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical personal protective
measures and environmental hygiene measures in nonhealthcare settings and discuss
their potential inclusion in pandemic plans. Although mechanistic studies support the
potential effect of hand hygiene or face masks, evidence from 14 randomized
controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission
of laboratory-confirmed influenza. We similarly found limited evidence on the
effectiveness of improved hygiene and environmental cleaning.

Not even the CDC actually supports — from a scientific perspective — the notion that face masks
have a significant effect on the transmission of a virus.

However, let’s look at the actual in-the-field evidence, starting with Austria and Poland

Wrorage UCGUIS. MULAN Gach ed Maps LG LUNN, ay Gener HH ESTER

death
f Estimated Using Cases - Case: dnvidedi by cases S days ado
. Apa! Lith Everyone requiced POLAND
| towsar late manky
: “7 April 6th Everyone required AUSTRIA
to wear face masks

. f
ae
= + et rl bee GPM hii 8 Gay ae de ap UUMis he? Shas Edy, Bes.

The above two charts are just two exemplars of the same trend throughout Europe. First, we see
that Austria enacted a mask ordinance on April 9. There is absolutely no effect on their case
curve; similarly for Poland after it enacted a mask law on April 10. In fact, it can be argued that
Poland had an increase in cases subsequent to the enactment of their mask ordinance. Germany
had a similar curve. Once again, these charts — all data obtained from European CDC sources,
publicly available and verifiable — illustrate the fact that wearing a mask did not materially
impact the curve.

Seasonality

https://emedicine. medscape.com/article/227820-overview

The above chart illustrates seasonal variations in frequency of selected upper respiratory tract
infection pathogens. PIV = parainfluenza virus; RSV = respiratory syncytial virus; MPV =
metapneumovirus; Group A Strept = group A streptococcus. Note that both influenza and
Coronavirus are seasonal viruses, with the incidence highest in the winter and spring. Once
again, this illustrates why there has been a decline in incidence of COVID-19 in the Northeast in
general, and further illustrates how a naive interpretation of “oh, we started wearing masks
and things got better” is wildly inaccurate.

Next, let’s examine the cases in Italy, Brazil and Peru with a slant towards seasonal variation.

BRAZIL

ey meme 0 oe * . .

faz 4 Bits Age Mi Ape Oa hese jst tas 2

When you examine the case of Italy, we see that it has a sharp increase in March, and then an
equally precipitous drop in April and May, very much in line with the seasonal variation in
frequency chart shown previously. However, something “interesting” seems to be happening
with Brazil and Peru. As an aside, note that Brazil did not implement a lockdown, while Peru did
~and as you can see, Brazil had a lower death count than Peru did.

What we are seeing is that Italy is exhibiting the Northern Temperate Type Pattern, while Brazil
and Peru are exhibiting the Northern Tropical Type Pattern with respect to seasonal variability
as described by Dr. R. Edgar Hope-Simpson, F.R.C.G.P. at Cirencester Epidemiological Research
Unit, UK. For those who have intellectual curiosity, you can read about The Transmission Of
Epidemic influenza where these concepts are explained.

Now, let’s turn our attention to the USA and the much-hyped “second coming” of COVID-19.

Seasonality/Regionality - Europe Vs USA?

Daily new confirmed CON 1D-10 dealhs per milion peaple

2 Laue i Gem means That The mummar of confines

SOUTHERN USA

4 GaM dar 24 fg 1G Am 3% May 120 dun & dar 29 Jud? auc & Sep 8. 7096

We can see that there is a marked similarity, up until the end of June, between the USA and
Europe when we do not control for different seasonal patterns due to regionality. However,
when we control for regionality, you can see the yellow line representing the Northeast USA,
and therefore easily infer what influence the Southern USA has upon things. What we are seeing
here, is a classic “double hump” due to seasonality and regionality.

New Deaths from COVID-19 per Day by US States/Territories, normalized by population

g
he

few Daily COVID-I9 Deathafim pecpie

“ Deaths per Million on Deaths per Million
“ USA NORTH-EAST * USA SOUTH
By (note: similar to USA West) ee {nate similar 1o USA West}

:
New Dally COVIO-13 Oraths/im poopie

Therefore, when we isolate the new deaths from COVID-19 per day and regionalize it, we in fact
see exactly what is predicted — a Northern Temperate Type Pattern for the Northeast USA, anda
Northern Tropical Type Pattern for the Southern states.

You may be asking why this is relevant. It is relevant for two reasons. Firstly, it once again
reinforces the notion that it is absolutely not simply “we wore masks, things got better, therefore
masks made them better” — that is the post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy that is endemic at the
moment ({1.¢., it occurred after ¢his, therefore ¢his caused it), but also that it illustrates that while
there may well be a “second coming”, the reason for that is quite simply seasonality and
regionality, and not some mysterious unknown that requires us to wear a totem ~ in this case a
mask — to ward off evil spirits. We are no longer living in the 17" century; we have science, we
have the ability to analyze data on an unprecedented scale, and as elected officials you all have a
responsibility to educate yourselves and not make decisions based upon fear, uncertainty, doubt
and the certain lack of knowledge.

“Cases” vs “Positive Test Result”

Historically — and by historically, I mean right up until a few months ago when the media went
completely bananas — a “case” meant a symptomatic, hospitalized case. It did not mean
“somebody tested positive”. Furthermore, historically PCR tests used a Ct amplification
threshold of less than 30. For COVID-19, they are instead using a Ct threshold of less than 40.
This has the effect that trace amounts of no-longer-active SARS-CoV-2 virus are detected,
effectively amplifying by a significant percentage the number of positive tests, giving rise to the
phenomenon of false positives that we are seeing.

Furthermore, the ongoing media frenzy with respect to COVID-19 has focused on the “positive
test result” metric, and not the historically accurate “Cases” metric, instead referring to the
former as the latter, further muddying and confusing things. A positive test is absolutely not a
medical case. All that doing this does is further the irrational panic gripping the nation and, in
fact, the world.

Interestingly, we have seen this before. The following chart shows the progression of the HIN1

“swine flu” virus. There was an actual impact in the 2008-2009 winter season, people died — not
nearly as many as were modeled (see above w.r.t. modeling inaccuracies), and then the medical

infrastructure brought out a rapid PCR test called FluChip.

tisbone Heatgea. end Serie vere! theepers Hens eet Sraiteretery Dastuma, Regend. matte veo tacnasees Rowse, mera herein

. Fall Testing
Summer Testing age ae
Freak-Out > Segond Wave’
Freak-Out

. (nobady dies} (nobody dics)

End of 2008-2009 fhe season = : -
. Fauci announecs “new” HIN] : a
also announced is
NIAID funded FluChip
tsee Wikis}

Thar Apne LaF. be @:
oe oanflumme A WEL .

SUIS wear doe? dining te owineud
nates wha aexton © P:
a.
B-

ferad 208) thegin 2916

This allowed there to be an absolute frenzy of testing during the summer of 2009. The large
number of positive results caused a mass media panic. Nobody died. When the fall of 2009
arrived, various people were predicting a massive second wave — note the name on the top left of
the chart — and again, nobody died even though there was an increase in positive test returns.

SPAIN

Very strong rebound in cases since late June. Nine weeks later, Deaths did not follow.
Only a minor increase of daily deaths in August, up to an average of 18/day.

Cases

August 2B

Deaths

cleanup and reuse of the Mohawk Tannery and Fimbel Door properties. Both properties
are located adjacent to the northern end of the Broad Street Parkway.

The City received a $66,700 grant from the NHDES to conduct a site assessment,
solidification/stabilization treatability test and a remedial action plan for the Fimbel
Door property. The local developer is conducting similar work on the Mohawk Tannery
site under the auspices of the US EPA. Once completed, the two studies will provide a
blueprint for the cleanup of the property and allow the team to prepare for
redevelopment. The team is working with the EPA to separate the clean portion of the
site and transfer it to the City. This parcel will provide the opportunity to add this parcel
to Mine Falls Park by way of a future pedestrian access bridge across the canal to
connect to the ball fields and trail systems.

Exit 36 South

The City is working with the NRPC to develop a plan to build a new exit off of the FE
Everett Tumpike and US Route 3 near the Massachusetts border, The project, which is
estimated to cost $19.85M (2020 dollars), would provide crucial access to the Daniel
Webster Highway from the FE Everett Turnpike. The project promised to dramatically
reduce traffic congestion along Spit Brook Road at Exit | and the Daniel Webster
Highway in South Nashua. The project also provides the potential to create easy
access to the Pheasant Lane Mall, along with a potential site for an intermodal
transportation center.

NRPC and the Northem Middlesex Council of Governments completed the Exit 36 Study
Area Plan in August of 2014, which estimated project costs and benefits. In the spring of
2015, the City worked with NRPC to prepare a detailed application to the highly-
competitive US Department of Transportation TIGER discretionary grant program. While
the application was unsuccessful, City staff are scheduling a debriefing session with
USDOT and planning to apply again this year.

Passenger Rall

City staff continues to work collaboratively with NHDOT and the New Hampshire Rail
Transit Authority (NHRTA) to support efforts to bring passenger rail to Nashua and New
Hampshire. In December of 2014, the State of New Hampshire released the final report
of the New Hampshire Capitol Corridor Rail & Transit Alternatives Analysis. Recently, rail-
focused legislation was signed by Governor Maggie Hassan, including Senate Bill 63,
which will help make the NHRTA both more efficient and more appealing to federal
agencies seeking to invest in states with well-organized rail authorities, and Senate Bil
88, which establishes a committee to study public-private partnerships for intermodal
transportation projects.

Locally, City staff is working on projects that may become future Nashua rail

stations. Staff is managing a NHDOT-funded project to build a park & ride facility at 25
Crown Street. Staffis also continuing to meet with potential buyers of the property
located at 2 East Spit Brook Road, a potential site for a commuter-oriented rail station in

The exact same scenario is now playing itself out across the world. The above chart references
the juxtaposition of COVID-19 deaths against COVID-19 positive test cases in Spain. As is
clearly obvious, the number of positive cases over the 9-week period ending August 28 does not
show a corresponding increase in the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. We can see the
same scenario play out in Ireland and the UK as shown in the chart below.

i “Cases”

Meteo D ceteris Goby forces

Deaths

i pisuenie Over
tn Bey hea

ne} fe ga

Similarly, across the USA, we have seen mass demonstrations against police brutality. We have
seen mass gatherings in California for prayer meetings. We have seen mass gatherings of
motorcyclists in Sturgis, South Dakota. We have seen similar mass gatherings in Florida on the
beach.

Not one of those has caused an increase in hospitalization rates, or in deaths directly attributed to
those events. However, the media is promulgating the myth of “positive test results” as “cases”,
causing an unnecessary panic.

Concerningly, however, we have just moved through a “safe summer” in the Northeast ~ a time
when the seasonality of Coronavirus is at its lowest ebb. During that time we have isolated
people, we have unnecessarily caused them to wear masks, and we have absolutely robbed them
of the ability to gain immunity by natural exposure to viruses of all kinds, including SARS-CoV-
2. Furthermore, by engendering panic and attempting to enforce a useless mask mandate, the
board of Aldermen has contributed to this situation. In addition to this, due to the mass hysteria
caused by the board, the state of NH, the states of NY, MA, CA and others, the incidence of
visits to primary care physicians for extraordinary events such as cardiac events, routine cancer
screening visits, and other preventative medicine procedures has declined some 20%-35%.

Those underlying conditions have not gone away.

Rather, what people have done has largely followed along the lines of a deferral —I°]] not go to
the doctor because (a) I’m too scared to go because of what they say about COVID-19, or (b)I
refuse to be a party to this insanity and will therefore defer my scheduled appointment until the
world has returned to normal.

As the year progresses, we will indeed see a 2™ bump of mortality. However, that second bump
will be skewed towards cancer deaths, heart disease-related deaths, and other entirely
preventable deaths. This is a direct consequence of your actions.

Conclusion

I want to draw your attention to the fact that the city of Nashua deployed a field hospital in the
Nashua South High School. It was never used. In fact, SNH Medical Center never even came
close to approaching capacity of its 160 hospital beds. Similarly, St. Joseph’s medical center
never came close to its capacity of 206 beds. The same can be said for Eliot Hospital’s 296 beds
and Catholic Medical Center’s 261 beds. Those four hospitals — and there are 26 hospitals in
New Hampshire — have a total of 923 beds. As of September 13, 2020, the state of New
Hampshire has had a total of 721 hospitalizations for COVID-19 since March. Right now, there
are 7 total hospitalizations.

The median age of death from COVID-19 is 82-84, depending upon which state you are in.
Regarding the city of Nashua, 35 of the 38 total deaths have occurred in long term care facilities
— see https://www.nh. goy/covid19/dashboard/summary.htm. Meanwhile, on average, the state of
New Hampshire sees some 2,700 deaths from cancer, 2,700 deaths from heart disease, 1,000
deaths from accidents, some 450 deaths from drug overdoses, 340 deaths from diabetes and more
than 260 from suicide.

We do not ban sugary drinks. We don’t ban cigarettes, we do not caution people to not consume
copious quantities of red meat, we are failing dismally on drug rehabilitation, and we do not do
an adequate job regarding suicides.

Thus far this year the state of New Hampshire has had 435 deaths related to COVID-19, and this
is deemed worthy of shutting the entire state down. Nashua, in turn deems its 35 deaths worthy
of forcing draconian measures onto the populace. Neither of these approaches is backed by real
data or critical reasoning.

As elected officials, it behooves you to analyze data, to not react with panic and lack of
understanding of the facts behind something. Your mask ordinance is one such example. Your
reaction to spend city funds to create a never-used field hospital is another example. The inane
signs that you have spent thousands on and posted throughout the city is yet another example. Do
you for one minute think — to use a phrase quoted by a judge recently ~ that the citizenry have
been living under a rock and are not aware of COVID-19?