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Master Plan Nashua Fire Rescue, NH

COMMUNITY RISK ASSESSMENT

A Community Risk Assessment provides an assessment of risks and potential risks present in the service area.
Mitigation of risks through internal and external resources is developed over time, improving the response,
recovery, and resilience of the community. Unless otherwise specified, all population and demographic
information is propriety data provided by Earth Systems Research Institute (ESRI).

Population

The population in the City of Nashua is 90,972. This includes 37,124 households with an average of 2.4 people
per household.

Figure 5. Population and Households

90,972

The city’s population is educated, with 91% of the population having graduated from high school (compared
to 92.9% statewide and 87.7% nationally) and 36% of the population has a Bachelor’s Degree or higher
(compared to 36.5% statewide and 31.5% nationally).

Figure 6. Education

EDUCATION

A

No High 26% 28% 36%

School
Diploma High School Some College Bachelor's/Grad
Graduate /Prof Degree

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Demographics
The racial makeup of Nashua is predominately white (73.2%), followed by Asian (8.4%), and Black or African
American (4.1%).

Figure 7. Racial Makeup

1.6%

8.4%

4-1%

12.7%

73-2%

«White «= Hispanic = African American Asian = Other

Population Trends

The population in Nashua has increased by 60.52% since 1970. The largest population increases were in the
1970S, 1980s, and 1990s. The city saw a slight decline in population between 2000 and 2010 and saw an
increase of 3.59% during the last decade.

Figure 8. Population Trends?

100,000 25%
90,000
80,000 20%
70,000 15%
60,000
50,000 10%
40,000
30,000 5%
20,000 0%
10,000
04 1.5%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

El Total Population =—=Percent Change

3 Population Trends According to the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Population Density

Nashua is a densely populated city with 2,893 residents per square mile. For the sake of comparison, the

population density of New Hampshire is 152 residents per square mile, and the population density nationally
is 91 residents per square mile.

The most densely populated areas of Nashua, with more than 10,000 residents per square mile, are in the

eastern part of the city in the neighborhoods surrounding fire stations 1, 2, and 4. There is also a pocket of
dense population in the south near Station 3.

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Figure 9. Population Density

Senter
= Form Estates
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@ Fire Station

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At-Risk Populations

The Journal of General Internal Medicine defines “Populations at Risk” very broadly. The definition includes
the poor, frail, disabled, economically disadvantaged, homeless, racial, and ethnic minorities, as well as
people with low literacy. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Urban Fire Safety Report further
reinforces the “at-risk” groups as:

= Males

«Children under 5 years of age

= Adults over the age of 65 years

= Persons with disabilities

= Persons with language barriers; and

«= Persons in low-income communities

Males

Males, especially those under 25 years of age, are more prone to engage in risky activities. Additionally, males
are 1.7 times more likely to die in fires than females. In Nashua, 48.8% of the population is male. This is slightly
less than both the state and nation, which are 49.6% male and 49.2% male, respectively.

Persons by Age-Risk

The median age in Nashua is 39.83 years old. In terms of age, the residents in Nashua are very evenly
distributed in an almost perfect bell curve. Generation G and the Alpha Generation, which are the oldest and
youngest generations in the city, comprise 6.8% and 4.5% of the population, respectively. The most
prominent generations are the Millennials (24.6%), Baby Boomers (21.9%), and Generation X (21.1%).

The Center for Disease Control states that Millennials have the highest risk of death caused by unintentional
injury; however, they are difficult to target for prevention programs because of occupational obligations and
a decline in community participation.

Figure 20. Population by Generation

@ 6S ©
ie f; s,
6.8% 21.9% 21.1%
8 ® ®
a, & &
24.6% 21.2% 4.5%

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Persons with Disabilities

Fires in the home can be potentially dangerous and deadly for everyone, but persons with disabilities and
impairments face additional challenges. Persons with disabilities often have a difficult time identifying or
escaping a fire.

8,922 of the 37,124 households within the City of Nashua reported having one or more members with a
disability. This comprises 24%, or almost a quarter of the households, which presents an opportunity for
education and community risk reduction within the Nashua community.

Figure 11. Households with Disabilities

Persons with Language Barriers

According to the NFPA, “Language barriers, cultural differences, and inexperience with unfamiliar home
technologies are factors that mark the challenges of helping newcomers live safely from the threat of fire in
the home.” By itself, speaking a language other than English at home does not directly contribute to a higher
risk of emergencies; however, if a person has difficulty speaking English, it may contribute to negative
outcomes during an emergency.

The minority population in the city is higher than the New Hampshire average but less than the national
average. The percentage of the population that is foreign-born (15.8%) is very high comparatively. In
addition, 21.7% of the population of Nashua speaks a language other than English. This suggests that normal
English versions of fire safety messages are potentially missing a large cross-section of the community.
Prevention and education messages could reach more residents if communication methods expanded to
include additional languages.

Persons Living in Poverty

Persons living in poverty experience increased risk from fire and medical emergencies due to the age and
condition of their housing, inability to pay for routine medical care, lack of medical insurance, and general
health conditions. Sometimes a lack of access to transportation leads to increased use of emergency medical
care and transport. Those living below the poverty line are the most at-risk. The low-income category is often
combined with other factors such as education, disability, and work status. In 2015, the United States
reported that 8.8% of seniors were living below the poverty level compared to 19.7% of children. In addition,
facing poverty or near poverty is more likely to occur if a person is Black or African-American, Hispanic, or in
a family (of any race) that is headed by a single woman.

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In the October 2018 edition of Health Briefs, a peer-reviewed publication supported by the Robert Wood
Johnson Foundation, published “Culture of Health.” The article highlighted a strong link between health and
income. The key findings were that there are significant morbidity disparities between the lower- and upper-
income brackets in the United States, leading to gaps in life expectancy of as much as 15 years for men and
10 years for women. The publication stated that “Poor health also contributes to reduced income, creating a
negative feedback loop sometimes referred to as the health-poverty trap.”

In Nashua, 9.9% of the population is at or below the poverty level. For comparison, the poverty rate in New
Hampshire is 7.6%, and nationally it is 11.8%.

Persons Without Health Care Coverage

Poor health can lead to elevated levels of strain on the healthcare system and emergency services system
within a community as those agencies are often the first contact for those without a primary care provider.
Determinants of Health include:

= Access to Quality Health Care Coverage
" Policies and Interventions

"An Individual’s Behavior and Biology

= Physical Environment

= Social Environment?

Within Nashua, 7.3% of the residents are estimated not to have health insurance.

Figure 12. Health Insurance

Ls

Has One Type Of
Health Insurance

Population (ACS)

o

No Health
Insurance

19< 19-34

4 Health promotion and community health nursing. Retrieved from: https://nursekey.com/4-health-promotion-and-risk-reduction/.

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Natural Hazards

Nashua has a four-season climate with long, cold, snowy winters and very warm and somewhat humid
summers; spring and autumn in between are relatively brief transitions.

Flooding

Floods are one of the costliest natural hazards in the world, yet most flood loss is both predictable and
preventable.

The Nashua River passes through the center of the city, flowing northeast and into the Merrimack River.
NOAA reports that 32 flooding events have occurred within Hillsborough County since 1950.

Figure 13. Flood Events in Hillsborough County, 1950-2019°

4/16/1996 3/10/1998 4/16/2007 8/4/2012
4/17/1996 6/16/1998 2/13/2008 9/12/2013
5/13/1996 4/1/2004 9/7/2008 10/30/2017
10/21/1996 4/2/2004 9/7/2008 10/30/2017
10/22/1996 10/15/2005 8/22/2009 10/30/2017
10/22/1996 10/15/2005 3/14/2010 1/12/2018
4/20/1997 5/13/2006 3/30/2010 1/12/2018
7114/1997 5/13/2006 4/1/2010 9/18/2018

From 1973 through the present (2018), there have been 11 flood-related declared disasters by FEMA in
Hillsborough County. The most recent declared flooding disaster was in March 2010.

Drought/Water Supply Shortage

Drought is a consequence of anticipated natural precipitation reduction over an extended period, usually a
season or more in length. Droughts are short-term or long-term water deficiencies that cause agricultural,
environmental, and societal impacts. Drought is normally part of all climatic regions, including areas with
high and low average rainfall.

Four indicators are monitored to gauge the presence and severity of hydrologic drought:

=" Groundwater Levels

" Precipitations Deficits
= Streamflow

= Reservoir Storage

5 Storm Events Database, Search Results | National Centers for Environmental Information (noaa.gov).

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The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), established in 2000, maps the location and intensity of drought across
the country. USDM classifies droughts in accordance with the following criteria.°

Ob ¢

Figure 14. U.S. Drought Monitor

DO - Abnormally Dry

» Short-term dryness slowing planting, 0.3%
growth of crops of State
* Some lingering water deficits
* Pastures or crops not fully recovered
D1 - Moderate Drought
» Some damage to crops, pastures 80.8%
* Some water shortages developing of State
* Voluntary water-use restrictions
requested
D2 - Severe Drought
* Crop or pasture loss likely 7.9%
* Water shortages common of State
« Water restrictions imposed
D3 - Extreme Drought
* Major crop/pasture losses 11.0%
* Widespread water shortages or of State

restrictions

D4 - Exceptional Drought

* Exceptional and widespread
crop/pasture losses

» Shortages of water creating water
emergencies

100.0%

Do-D4

99.7%

Di-D4

18.9%

D2-D4

11.0%

Ds-D4

0.0%

of State

Since 2000, the longest duration of drought (D1—D4) in New Hampshire lasted 47 weeks, beginning on June
7, 2016, and ending on April 25, 2017. The most intense period of drought occurred the week of October 6,
2020, where D3 affected 21.99% of New Hampshire.

° New Hampshire | Drought.gov.

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Figure 15. Drought in New Hampshire

100% Percent Area for New Hampshire

90% =
80% =
70% +
60% -
40% =|
40% -
30% =
20% +
10% 4

[ipo [Jp1 9p? —ip3 Mp4

As of November 17, 2020, USDM was reporting that parts of Nashua were experiencing D2 and D3 conditions.

Figure 16. Nashua Drought Conditions

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Earthquakes

An earthquake is caused when the Earth’s crust, composed of a dozen or more rigid plates, bump against one
another. Most earthquakes are the result of strain release along zones of weakness (faults) in response to the
slow motion of those crustal plates.

Damage from an earthquake's impact can be as small as a slight shift or vibration or as serious as sustaining
structural and critical infrastructure damage and/or collapse on a severe scale, including damage to energy
pipelines in the area.

Nashua has a low earthquake risk, with a total of 30 earthquakes since 1931. The USGS database shows a
2.38% chance of a major earthquake within 5okm of Nashua, NH, within the next 50 years. The following
figure illustrates magnitude 3 and greater that have affected New Hampshire during the last 50 years.

Figure 17. Magnitude 3+ Earthquakes’

4 9 4.8 magnitude, 12 km depth
Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, Canada

ago 4.5 magnitude, & km depth

, New Hampshire, United States

3 9 3.9 magnitude, 5 km depth
Northfield, New Hampshire, United States
2 9 3.9 magnitude, 5 km depth
Milan, New Hampshire, United States

9 3.3 magnitude, 5 km depth
ew Hampshire, United States

p# years agg 3.3 magnitude, 10 km depth
Deerfield, New Hampshire, United States
3 9 3.8 magnitude, 5 km depth
Canton, Maine, United States

9 3.7 magnitude, 10 km depth

assachusetts, United States

9 32 years a

Hardwick,

Extreme Temperatures

A heatwave is a prolonged period of excessive heat, often combined with excessive humidity. Extreme heat,
when temperatures hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperatures for the region, can be
potentially lethal and last for several weeks. A heatwave combined with drought can be a very dangerous
situation.

7 Earthquaketrack.com.

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