Master Plan
COMMUNITY RISK PRIORITIES
Nashua Fire Rescue, NH
Assessing community risks can be a complex process. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to scoring risks
and no single correct way to prioritize those risks. Risk scoring methodologies can include a wide variety of
mathematical formulas, three-axis calculations, scoring charts, and critical tasking staffing tables. Just as
every community is different, the mitigating factors within a community can have varying impacts. For this
reason, ESCI recommends that communities employ a variety of different risk assessment methodologies
and then evaluate the results in totality when establishing community risk priorities.
In her recent article 3 Elements of an Effective Fire Department Community Risk Assessment, Dr. Lori Moore-
Merrell provided the following explanation for the three main elements that should provide the foundation
for all community risk assessments:79
Figure 33. Community Risk Assessment Elements
Oey NUN Ued.4 ee
Assessment Element P
1. Probability
(likelihood) of an
incident occurring.
2. Consequence
(magnitude) of an
incident on the
community.
3. Impact of an
incident on the
department’s
response system.
Probability is associated with the frequency of an incident type.
Incidents with high probability will occur more frequently. Once these
predictions are made, risks can then be ranked as having a low,
moderate, or high probability of occurring.
Consequence is the measure of the outcome of an incident type
occurrence. To assess consequence, fire department leaders must first
identify, categorize, and prioritize community hazards. Hazards are the
causes of danger and peril in the community. Risk quantifies the
degree of potential danger the hazard presents. The consequences of
an emergency incident result from a combination of the risk level of
the hazard, the duration and nature of the event, and the response
interventions. Consequences are divided into four categories:
1. Civilian and firefighter injury or loss of life
2. Property damage or loss
3. Critical infrastructure damage or loss
4. Environmental damage or loss
Impact is a measure that explains the effects of multiple concurrent
incidents on the fire department. Impact describes a fire
department's ability to provide ongoing services to the remaining
areas of a community considering frequent activity in known high-
volume demand areas.
19 https://www.lexipol.com/resources/blog/3-elements-of-an-effective-fire-….
ESC) Emergency Services
Consulting International
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