New Deaths from COVID-19 per Day by US States/Territories, normalized by population
g
he
few Daily COVID-I9 Deathafim pecpie
“ Deaths per Million on Deaths per Million
“ USA NORTH-EAST * USA SOUTH
By (note: similar to USA West) ee {nate similar 1o USA West}
:
New Dally COVIO-13 Oraths/im poopie
Therefore, when we isolate the new deaths from COVID-19 per day and regionalize it, we in fact
see exactly what is predicted — a Northern Temperate Type Pattern for the Northeast USA, anda
Northern Tropical Type Pattern for the Southern states.
You may be asking why this is relevant. It is relevant for two reasons. Firstly, it once again
reinforces the notion that it is absolutely not simply “we wore masks, things got better, therefore
masks made them better” — that is the post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy that is endemic at the
moment ({1.¢., it occurred after ¢his, therefore ¢his caused it), but also that it illustrates that while
there may well be a “second coming”, the reason for that is quite simply seasonality and
regionality, and not some mysterious unknown that requires us to wear a totem ~ in this case a
mask — to ward off evil spirits. We are no longer living in the 17" century; we have science, we
have the ability to analyze data on an unprecedented scale, and as elected officials you all have a
responsibility to educate yourselves and not make decisions based upon fear, uncertainty, doubt
and the certain lack of knowledge.
“Cases” vs “Positive Test Result”
Historically — and by historically, I mean right up until a few months ago when the media went
completely bananas — a “case” meant a symptomatic, hospitalized case. It did not mean
“somebody tested positive”. Furthermore, historically PCR tests used a Ct amplification
threshold of less than 30. For COVID-19, they are instead using a Ct threshold of less than 40.
This has the effect that trace amounts of no-longer-active SARS-CoV-2 virus are detected,
effectively amplifying by a significant percentage the number of positive tests, giving rise to the
phenomenon of false positives that we are seeing.
