When you examine the case of Italy, we see that it has a sharp increase in March, and then an
equally precipitous drop in April and May, very much in line with the seasonal variation in
frequency chart shown previously. However, something “interesting” seems to be happening
with Brazil and Peru. As an aside, note that Brazil did not implement a lockdown, while Peru did
~and as you can see, Brazil had a lower death count than Peru did.
What we are seeing is that Italy is exhibiting the Northern Temperate Type Pattern, while Brazil
and Peru are exhibiting the Northern Tropical Type Pattern with respect to seasonal variability
as described by Dr. R. Edgar Hope-Simpson, F.R.C.G.P. at Cirencester Epidemiological Research
Unit, UK. For those who have intellectual curiosity, you can read about The Transmission Of
Epidemic influenza where these concepts are explained.
Now, let’s turn our attention to the USA and the much-hyped “second coming” of COVID-19.
Seasonality/Regionality - Europe Vs USA?
Daily new confirmed CON 1D-10 dealhs per milion peaple
2 Laue i Gem means That The mummar of confines
SOUTHERN USA
4 GaM dar 24 fg 1G Am 3% May 120 dun & dar 29 Jud? auc & Sep 8. 7096
We can see that there is a marked similarity, up until the end of June, between the USA and
Europe when we do not control for different seasonal patterns due to regionality. However,
when we control for regionality, you can see the yellow line representing the Northeast USA,
and therefore easily infer what influence the Southern USA has upon things. What we are seeing
here, is a classic “double hump” due to seasonality and regionality.
