While 180,000 excess deaths seems like a lot, it’s really only 0.05% of the population, and the
difference between 2018 and 2020 excess deaths is 40,000 or 0.01% of the population. In other
words, there is very little real difference between the excess deaths of the 2018 winter season vs
the 2020 winter season. What has occurred ts that those who would previously have died from
influenza have instead died from COVID-19. The same holds true in the USA.
EUROPE ALL-CAUSE DEATHS
(EuroMomo Countries) 2018 Winter Season 2020 Winter Season
~360 Million Population Excess Deaths Excess Deaths
TOTAL = “140,000 TOTAL 7th Sept ™120,000
45-64 years 2018 Excess Deaths / 2020 Excess Deaths
(integrated from curve} {integrated from curve}
15-64 y.o’s 15-64 y.0.'s
~20,000
i
Mt.
ST YT a
ATE yihy bOSY DEAT RAT. POLCE IAG COWL
65+ years 2020 Excess Deaths
2018 Excess Deaths fintegrated fram curve)
(integrated from curve} 65+ yo. |
85+ ¥.0,3 ~167,000 “*
~120,000
NOE VERY LOM BLAH RATE PEESESING COVO
This is another view that explains the expected decline in the number of deaths and cases from
COVID-19. Again, a reason that is quite independent from the notions of social distancing and
mask wearing by the general public.
A Note Regarding Incorrect Statistical Models
Much has been made about how models have been used to predict a catastrophic surge in deaths
from COVID-19. In particular, many have used the Imperial College model to justify why they
needed to lock down cities, states or countries. Let’s compare the models to the reality. We can
focus on Sweden here, because once again they provide a great closed loop system pertaining to
how a country that did not follow the herd and did not lock down completely debunks these
models.
The chart below shows the Imperial College predictions for Sweden under two scenarios — the
first scenario (the orange line in the chart) shows the number of predicted deaths if Sweden did
nothing, the gray line shows the number of predicted deaths if Sweden implemented “moderate”
no-lockdown measures (which is actually similar to what Sweden did, in fact, do), while the blue
line is the actual observed COVID-19 positive deaths. As should be clear to anybody, the reality
does not come even close to the predictions. It is worth mentioning that Sweden had no
