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  2. Board Of Aldermen - Agenda - 9/22/2020 - P19

Board Of Aldermen - Agenda - 9/22/2020 - P19

By dnadmin on Sun, 11/06/2022 - 23:01
Document Date
Fri, 09/18/2020 - 16:10
Meeting Description
Board Of Aldermen
Document Type
Agenda
Meeting Date
Tue, 09/22/2020 - 00:00
Page Number
19
Image URL
https://nashuameetingsstorage.blob.core.windows.net/nm-docs-pages/boa_a__092220…

Note that all diagrams in this document refer to their sources. All sources are publicly verifiable
and, in the majority, come from government sources.

The GOMPERTZ Curve

We'll start with a little study of the curves for deaths per million for several European countries.
The following chart — source is the European CDC — shows how all of those countries’ COVID-
19 mortality curves follow a classic GOMPERTZ curve, exactly as per normal influenza deaths.

As can be seen, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic ended around May through to
early June. This is entirely in line with influenza epidemics in the past according to Professor
Michael Levitt of Stanford, who has done considerable work on biostatistical analysis with
respect to flu epidemic modeling. This curve is caused by several factors, including the fact that
as the SARS-CoV-2 virus arrived in each country, those who were more susceptible become
infected first, mortality is front-loaded by virtue of their susceptibility, and following that you get
a Classically modeled decline after those who are most susceptible die.

Dally confirmed COV ID- 19 de alhs per million, rolling 7-day average
im) i te gat mearn thet he shunner of cordismed
5 fra. OC ihe 4

44 Raly
, GOMPERTZ Curve throughout
- As per influenza Epidemics

EUROPE

ey

Sweden

ApriG 45°30 May3G Jun? Jun 2¢ Jld@ Aug

Next, we see the following curve — also a classic GOMPERTZ curve — but this time it’s for the
Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-19. As you can see, without any kind of a lockdown, without any
kind of face masks, without any kind of mass governmental intrusion into the lives of the

Page Image
Board Of Aldermen - Agenda - 9/22/2020 - P19

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